Zircon geochronology and geochemistry to constrain the youngest eruption events and magma evolution of the Mid-Miocene ignimbrite flare-up in the Pannonian Basin,eastern central Europe     

Réka?LukácsEmail author  Szabolcs?Harangi  Olivier?Bachmann  Marcel?Guillong  Martin?Dani?ík  Yannick?Buret  Albrecht?von?Quadt  István?Dunkl  László?Fodor  Jakub?Sliwinski  Ildikó?Soós  János?Szepesi 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2015,170(5-6):52

A silicic ignimbrite flare-up episode occurred in the Pannonian Basin during the Miocene, coeval with the syn-extensional period in the region. It produced important correlation horizons in the regional stratigraphy; however, they lacked precise and accurate geochronology. Here, we used U–Pb (LA-ICP-MS and ID-TIMS) and (U–Th)/He dating of zircons to determine the eruption ages of the youngest stage of this volcanic activity and constrain the longevity of the magma storage in crustal reservoirs. Reliability of the U–Pb data is supported by (U–Th)/He zircon dating and magnetostratigraphic constraints. We distinguish four eruptive phases from 15.9 ± 0.3 to 14.1 ± 0.3 Ma, each of which possibly includes multiple eruptive events. Among these, at least two large volume eruptions (>10 km³) occurred at 14.8 ± 0.3 Ma (Demjén ignimbrite) and 14.1 ± 0.3 Ma (Harsány ignimbrite). The in situ U–Pb zircon dating shows wide age ranges (up to 700 kyr) in most of the crystal-poor pyroclastic units, containing few to no xenocrysts, which implies efficient recycling of antecrysts. We propose that long-lived silicic magma reservoirs, mostly kept as high-crystallinity mushes, have existed in the Pannonian Basin during the 16–14 Ma period. Small but significant differences in zircon, bulk rock and glass shard composition among units suggest the presence of spatially separated reservoirs, sometimes existing contemporaneously. Our results also better constrain the time frame of the main tectonic events that occurred in the Northern Pannonian Basin: We refined the upper temporal boundary (15 Ma) of the youngest counterclockwise block rotation and the beginning of a new deformation phase, which structurally characterized the onset of the youngest volcanic and sedimentary phase.  相似文献   

Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong          下载免费PDF全文

LAM Hil  SHUM Karen Kit-ying  TANG Julian Shu-yan 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(6):725-733

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.  相似文献   

Banking Across Boundaries: Placing Finance in Capitalism by Brett Christophers. Chichester,Wiley‐Blackwell, 2013, pp. xi + 290 (ISBN: 978‐1‐4443‐3828‐7).          下载免费PDF全文

Karen Lai 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2015,36(1):127-128

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Confronting the challenge of integrated assessment of climate adaptation: a conceptual framework     

Ian Sue Wing  Karen Fisher-Vanden 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):497-514

Key limitations of integrated assessment models (IAMs) are their highly stylized and aggregated representation of climate damages and associated economic responses, as well as the omission of specific investments related to climate change adaptation. This paper proposes a framework for modeling climate impacts and adaptation that clarifies the relevant research issues and provides a template for making improvements. We identify five desirable characteristics of an ideal integrated assessment modeling platform, which we elaborate into a conceptual model that distinguishes three different classes of adaptation-related activities. Based on these elements we specify an impacts- and adaptation-centric IAM, whose optimality conditions are used to highlight the types of functional relationships necessary for realistic representations of adaptation-related decisions, the specific mechanisms by which these responses can be incorporated into IAMs, and the ways in which the inclusion of adaptation is likely to affect the simulations’ results.  相似文献   

Climate change and mental health: an exploratory case study from Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ashlee Cunsolo Willox  Sherilee L. Harper  James D. Ford  Victoria L. Edge  Karen Landman  Karen Houle  Sarah Blake  Charlotte Wolfrey 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):255-270

As the impacts from anthropogenic climate change are increasing globally, people are experiencing dramatic shifts in weather, temperature, wildlife and vegetation patterns, and water and food quality and availability. These changes impact human health and well-being, and resultantly, climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century. Recently, research is beginning to indicate that changes in climate, and the subsequent disruption to the social, economic, and environmental determinants of health, may cause increased incidences and prevalence of mental health issues, emotional responses, and large-scale sociopsychological changes. Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and well-being in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that changes in weather, snow and ice stability and extent, and wildlife and vegetation patterns attributed to climate change were negatively impacting mental health and well-being due to disruptions in land-based activities and a loss of place-based solace and cultural identity. Participants reported that changes in climate and environment increased family stress, enhanced the possibility of increased drug and alcohol usage, amplified previous traumas and mental health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation. While a preliminary case study, these exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional mental health stressor for resource-dependent communities and provide a baseline for further research.  相似文献   

Effects of climate variability on the distribution and fishing conditions of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Indian Ocean     

Kuo-Wei Lan  Karen Evans  Ming-An Lee 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):63-77

Variations in the abundance and distribution of pelagic tuna populations have been associated with large-scale climate indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean. Similarly to the Pacific and Atlantic, variability in the distribution and catch rates of tuna species have also been observed in association with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a basin-scale pattern of sea surface and subsurface temperatures that affect climate in the Indian Ocean. The environmental processes associated with the IOD that drive variability in tuna populations, however, are largely unexplored. To better understand these processes, we investigated longline catch rates of yellowfin tuna and their distributions in the western Indian Ocean in relation to IOD events, sea surface water temperatures (SST) and estimates of net primary productivity (NPP). Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was observed to be negatively correlated to the IOD with a periodicity centred around 4 years. During positive IOD events, SSTs were relatively higher, NPP was lower, CPUE decreased and catch distributions were restricted to the northern and western margins of the western Indian Ocean. During negative IOD events, lower SSTs and higher NPP were associated with increasing CPUE, particularly in the Arabian Sea and seas surrounding Madagascar, and catches expanded into central regions of the western Indian Ocean. These findings provide preliminary insights into some of the key environmental features driving the distribution of yellowfin tuna in the western Indian Ocean and associated variability in fisheries catches.  相似文献   

Suspended‐sediment sources in an urban watershed,Northeast Branch Anacostia River,Maryland     

Olivia H. Devereux  Karen L. Prestegaard  Brian A. Needelman  Allen C. Gellis 《水文研究》2010,24(11):1391-1403

Fine sediment sources were characterized by chemical composition in an urban watershed, the Northeast Branch Anacostia River, which drains to the Chesapeake Bay. Concentrations of 63 elements and two radionuclides were measured in possible land‐based sediment sources and suspended sediment collected from the water column at the watershed outlet during storm events. These tracer concentrations were used to determine the relative quantity of suspended sediment contributed by each source. Although this is an urbanized watershed, there was not a distinct urban signature that can be evaluated except for the contributions from road surfaces. We identified the sources of fine sediment by both physiographic province (Piedmont and Coastal Plain) and source locale (streambanks, upland and street residue) by using different sets of elemental tracers. The Piedmont contributed the majority of the fine sediment for seven of the eight measured storms. The streambanks contributed the greatest quantity of fine sediment when evaluated by source locale. Street residue contributed 13% of the total suspended sediment on average and was the source most concentrated in anthropogenically enriched elements. Combining results from the source locale and physiographic province analyses, most fine sediment in the Northeast Branch watershed is derived from streambanks that contain sediment eroded from the Piedmont physiographic province of the watershed. Sediment fingerprinting analyses are most useful when longer term evaluations of sediment erosion and storage are also available from streambank‐erosion measurements, sediment budget and other methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial interpolation of snow water equivalency using surface observations and remotely sensed images of snow‐covered area     

Brian J. Harshburger  Karen S. Humes  Von P. Walden  Troy R. Blandford  Brandon C. Moore  Raymond J. Dezzani 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1285-1295

As demand for water continues to escalate in the western Unites States, so does the need for accurate monitoring of the snowpack in mountainous areas. In this study, we describe a simple methodology for generating gridded‐estimates of snow water equivalency (SWE) using both surface observations of SWE and remotely sensed estimates of snow‐covered area (SCA). Multiple regression was used to quantify the relationship between physiographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, clear‐sky solar radiation, etc.) and SWE as measured at a number of sites in a mountainous basin in south‐central Idaho (Big Wood River Basin). The elevation of the snowline, obtained from the SCA estimates, was used to constrain the predicted SWE values. The results from the analysis are encouraging and compare well to those found in previous studies, which often utilized more sophisticated spatial interpolation techniques. Cross‐validation results indicate that the spatial interpolation method produces accurate SWE estimates [mean R² = 0·82, mean mean absolute error (MAE) = 4·34 cm, mean root mean squared error (RMSE) = 5·29 cm]. The basin examined in this study is typical of many mid‐elevation mountainous basins throughout the western United States, in terms of the distribution of topographic variables, as well as the number and characteristics of sites at which the necessary ground data are available. Thus, there is high potential for this methodology to be successfully applied to other mountainous basins. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling     

Anita Shepherd  Karen M. Gill  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3864-3877

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Designation processes for marine protected areas in the coastal wetlands of South Korea     

Jungho Nam  Jongseong Ryu  David Fluharty  Chul-hwan Koh  Karen Dyson  Won Keun Chang  Hee-Jung Choi  Daeseok Kang  Jong Seong Khim  Chang-Hee Lee 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(11):703-710

The history of Korean tidal flat management and the process for designating Coastal Wetland Protected Areas (CWPAs) are described. Korean coastal wetlands have a long history of intensive use through reclamation for agricultural and industrial uses in the 20th century. Recently, the management policy is shifting away from intensive use towards the conservation of wetlands. This shift is caused by increasing public awareness of the value of wetlands and strong institutional support from the government. Since the Wetlands Conservation Act was passed in 1999, a total of twelve CWPAs have been designated through both top-down and bottom-up processes. Three designation paths are classified based on the relevant drivers, namely government-driven designations (seven CWPAs), local community driven designations (three CWPAs), and conflict resolution (trade-offs) driven designation (two CWPAs). The lessons learned from the designation of Korean CWPAs is that diversification of designation process could facilitate voluntary participation of local stakeholders and thereby enhance the chance of successful implementation of wise use strategy of tidal flats.  相似文献